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Nifty - Upside needs decisive breakout above 19550; Consolidation Happens during Corporate Results

The Nifty 50 index opened the week at the 19246.50 level and directly touched its highest mark of 19523.60, without any downside movement. After touching its new highest point, the Nifty 50 Index got a rejection from its high and closed at 19331.80, shedding 191.80 points from its peak. In the previous week, The benchmark index oscillated within the 289.20 points range and closed with a gain of 142.75 ( 0.74%).

Nifty 50 - Index Monthly Chart

The Nifty 50 index, the monthly chart has crossed the long followed channel on its higher side, which indicates bullish sentiments in the longer term. We can see the buying spree by FIIs in the cash segment, which confirms the trend.

Now we need to see if July monthly closing happens above 19189.65, then it will confirm the restricted bearish trend for August month also.

Nifty 50 Index Weekly Chart

The Nifty 50 Weekly chart is showing that all the Simple moving averages are supporting, its bullish trend. The weekly candle got 60 to 70% upper rejection wick, but buying spree from the low level shows that bulls are still active and ready to support from its lower level.

Nifty 50 Weekly Chart (Fibonacci Chart Status)

We discussed this portion that Nifty can touch 19448 levels, but it went up higher till 19523, in one go and got a rejection from higher levels. We are still in the expectation, that before going up to the next level, the Nifty index can retrace a little bit further to find its immediate support, and consolidate during the period of corporate result announcements, then it can move further.

Nifty 50 Index Daily Chart

The Nifty 50 Index daily chart, got a rejection from its highest level on the last day of the previous week's trading session and ate up three previous days' profits in a single day. This could be treated as profit booking from the higher levels.

Nifty 50 Index Hourly Chart

The Nifty 50 index hourly chart, took a rest near the 50 simple moving average. The rejection from the lower level in the last hour shows that bulls tried to take reign in their hands, but the profit booking pressure was so high, that they could not able to get the full command.

FII Previous Week's Activity

We should know that Foreign investors pour in nearly $3 billion on Dalal Street this week. which means they sideways the DIIs and hold the market completely in their hands only.

If we see the Thursday numbers of the FIIs future index, it crossed the 100+K, mark, which was a very bullish signal. On Friday, in the last trading session, they also booked profit, but still, they are very much in the game with 91+K future positions.

DIIs were booking profit in the cash market throughout the week, but FIIs were constantly in buying spree.

Sector Performance: (Weekly)

Broader Weekly Index Performace

Sector performance and broader index performance on a weekly basis are self-explanatory.

Outlook for the NIFTY 50 Index for Coming Week starts from 10th Jul 2023

We can observe that a Shooting Star appeared on the Nifty 50 weekly Index candle. This indicates that the price opened high and went higher, but closing happened only to shed off the peak prices and leave the high point quite far.

Similarly, On the Nifty 50 Index daily Chart candle has formed a bearish engulfing candle, which obviously warrants caution as well.

The formation of both candles represents that they have the potential to stop/halt or disrupt the current up move, which means, from here the Nifty Index can spend some time in consolidation mode.

India VIX

The previous week India VIX closed at 11.53 from 11.23. It is surged by 6.78%

Support Level for the Coming Week for NIFTY:

The broader support level on the technical chart could be in the range of 19100 followed by the level of 18900.

Resistance Level for the Coming Week for NIFTY:

The broader resistance level on the technical chart could be 19430 followed by the levels of 19550

We can suggest, this market is still not signaling any fresh short positions. Well, we can say that the possibility of some range-bound consolidation can take place.

Even this is correct that, shorts must be avoided but fresh purchases may be made on a highly selective basis.

A cautiously positive outlook is advised for the coming week.

Thanks for reading.

Keep Trading

Stay Invested


Neeraj Bhatia

(Managing Director)

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI Registered technical Analyst, so consult your financial advisor, before taking any trade. This technical weekly post is only for learning purposes and its a free of charge. The views written here are completely my personal view only. I am not suggesting here anyone follow my views. I do not have any WhatsApp Group ID or Telegram ID related to it.

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