Nifty - Enjoy the Bullish Bias till above 17883
As we highlighted in our previous week's technical journal, the Nifty 50 Index is shifting its range downside slowly.
The Nifty 50 Index opened at 17952, reached its high of 18141.40, and touched a low level of 17761.65 before closing at 17956.60. So overall benchmark index finally closed with a modest gain of 97.15 points (+0.54%) on a weekly basis
Over the past five days, the benchmark index NIFTY-50 not only remained below this point but tested crucial support levels on the daily chart multiple times. The last trading day (Friday) once again saw the index rebounding from lower levels.
Lets us see how we can trade Nifty-50 Index in the coming Weeks.
Nifty 50 Index - Monthly Chart
Well, We can see that the monthly Nifty chart traded only lower levels from the previous month throughout the previous 2 weeks. The million-dollar question is: Do we have any impact on corporate results whether good or bad?
We can see, the data starts from 1st Jan 2023 onwards of FIIs selling relentlessly. They are still selling on every rise in the market. They pulled out Rs. 15068 Cr only in January 2023 itself, till now.
The below-mentioned data for FIIs' Monthly selling data from March 2022 Onwards, correspondingly Home DIIs are trying to match the numbers, but everytime FIIs are selling more and more
Nifty 50 -Index Weekly Chart
Luckily Weekly Chart for the Nifty-50 Index ended up with a Dozi candle, where it seems Buyers and Sellers both are confused, about what they will have to do and where is the market headed.
This shows that BIG Players are fighting in the market. One (most probably FIIs) wants to keep the market close below 18000 and the other (most Probably DIIs) wants to market ended up above 18000. Maybe Fund Managers from DIIs know that below 18000, sentiment will become weak and they can face redemption pressure as the 31st of march 2023 is approaching and the financial year is near to end.
Nifty -50 Index Daily Chart
As we mentioned earlier that only the last day of the previous week showed some strength to defend the lowest level of the week.
The Outlook of the coming week starts from 16th Jan 2023
The US Markets are having a long weekend; they will be a trading holiday on Monday on account of the observance of Martin Luther King Day. so in this case we can see the market gaining strength in absence of FII players on Monday.
The special observation in the previous week is that the Nifty-50 Index took support fourth time on the shorter 20-Week Moving Average which is currently placed at 17883.
Coincidently, this level is near the 100-Daily Moving Average which is in very close vicinity at 17911.
This makes the range of 17883-17911 a very important support zone for the markets on a closing basis.
So long as the Nifty -50 Index trades above this range, there are greater possibilities of the markets avoiding any major breakdown on the charts.
Only a close below this range will invite incremental weakness in the markets.
Support Level for the coming week: We can see the support coming for the coming week would be from 17680 to 17800
Resistance Level for the coming Week: We can see the resistance for the coming week would be 18280-300 level and above that 18460.
We can not see this week Nifty can cross the level of 18500 anytime.
The US Dollar Index has stayed particularly weak; there is some room for it to get a bit weaker from here as well.