Nifty - Will it cross 16000 this expiry?
Corporate results have already been started, but the absence of enthusiasm still prevails in the market.
The market sounds below expectations of the results of major HDFC bank and we have seen a swing low of 34400 as stated in the previous week's blog.
Let us see, how the market reacts on Reliance (which comes out with good numbers) and ICICI bank results, where NPAs have increased.
For the last four days, Nifty is playing see-saw. It broke the channel and kissed 50 DMA in the daily chart and, then again went back into the channel and closed with a dozi candle, which shows indecisiveness.
On the last trading day, in one hour chart, Nifty is showing some great moves, filled up the gap within the last two trading sessions and reverse back into the channel, with good upward moves, but in the last hour, it lost all of its day's gain.
We are still sure, that Nifty can breakout 16000 upwards, where Nifty Bank still seems on the back foot, resulting in dragging Nifty also on the backfoot.
Although Nifty bank has closed above 35000 on the last trading session, even then we need to wait for follow-up buying to continue for long trades.
A close if below 34900, for Nifty bank, can be taken it down towards the 34050 range. So be cautious for your long trades. If crosses above 35100, it can show momentum towards 35500.
For Nifty, In the coming week, the strong resistance would be 15924 to 16065, if it breakout, Nifty can reach near 16200.
Below 16000 levels, we can see more profit booking scenarios.
On the lower side, Nifty can get support from 15700-15650 and 15610 levels.
All in all, the NIFTY has a serious resistance to clear in the form of 15900-16000 zones.
The long duration charts also suggest that the markets are being overextended, this will keep all upsides capped and vulnerable to selling pressures from higher levels.
We still do not recommend going for aggressive shorts at this time. Wait for the best opportunity, below 15400 only.
All longs should be once again be kept limited to defensive and low beta stocks.
Keep trailing your stop losses for all long trades. and bet only for defensive stocks for the coming week ahead.
Thanks for reading