Nifty - To Reach ATH it should hold the 18265 Level
The previous week's benchmark indices ended with a wider range as we expected and suggested in our previous technical journal. We anticipated it to travel between 17500 to 18000. In the previous week, the Nifty-50 weekly index oscillated in the 476.65-point range. Nifty, which gained on all five days, went on to post a decent gain of 441 points (+2.50%) on a weekly basis.
Let us discuss, the current status of our char pattern suggested now.
Nifty 50 Index Monthly Chart
As we expected the Nifty 50 Index monthly chart will close in the GREEN candle and the same happened for April 2023 month. Now the green candle crosses the ultra-short-term channel(yellow) and touched the short-term channel(pink), which is a sign of a little more bullishness ahead. There is an expectation that the benchmark index can move higher and higher till it holds the 18000 level.
As of now, the Nifty index is sustaining above the all-moving averages in Nifty Monthly Chart. Which shows bullishness.
Nifty 50 Index - Weekly Chart
In the Nifty 50 Index Weekly chart the last candles already entered the short-term channel, so a bullish move can be expected in the coming days, but on a closing basis, the Nifty should not be closed below 17900-17950, in any case in the coming week. As soon as it happened, then 17800 will become the crucial support level.
As of now, Index has retained itself above, and all moving averages are supporting the bullish move as of now.
Status of Head & Shoulder Pattern on Nifty Weekly Chart
We are discussing the formation of head and shoulder patterns on a weekly time frame multiple times. We can see the right shoulder is exactly touching the height of the Left shoulder. It seems now we are in the CAUTION zone. It seems at this level, traders should start saving partial profits and should avoid creating any fresh positions.
But in case, if once again cash buying starts by FIIs on Tuesday morning and maintains for the first half of the day, this will force the resistance level of 18265 to be broken decisively easily and then we can see the market be moved towards an all-time high without any meaningful retracement.
Nifty Fibonacci Chart on Weekly time frame:
The above chart is showing that the Nifty 50 weekly index is completing its 61.8% of retracement. So this is again showing caution for traders.
No doubt, if the Nifty will open Gap up 200 points on Tuesday, this will force 18200 option call writers to run for cover and this can make Nifty once again in the grip of bulls because of the short covering rally.
Nifty 50 Index Daily Chart
The Nifty 50 Index Daily Chart shows that Nifty has already moved into the short-term channel for the last 5 trading sessions/days, and it is reaching near its previous strong resistance level, which sits at 18265.
If Nifty is able to break it decisively, only then the next level for Nifty would be its previous all-time high levels.
The Nifty index has already broken the strongest level of 17800 and 17966 very smoothly and also it closed above the level of 18057, which was also one of the strongest resistance levels.
Now we need to watch closely if the benchmark index will be able to reach its immediate resistance level and if will it be able to sustain and able to give closing above 18265 on Tuesday. If it is successful for at least 30 minutes then we can see all time high in this week only.
As of now, all the moving averages support the candles on the daily chart.
Outlook for the NIFTY 50 Index for Coming Week starts from 2nd May 2023