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Nifty - Stay at the height is more difficult than reaching the previous high

The previous week, the Nifty 50 Index traveled high as much as 18886.60 but was unable to touch the all-time high which was at 18887.60. Just 1 point below, its all-time high, the index met with profit booking due to low India VIX.

In the previous week, the benchmark index traveled within the range (239.50 points) It opened at 18873.30, touched its high at 18886.60, and fell to its low at 18647.10 before closing at 18665.50. It ended up with a loss of ( -160.50) points and in percentage terms ( -0.85%).

Nifty 50 Index Monthy Chart

In the monthly chart of the Nifty 50 Index, we can see that still, the index is perfectly traveling above the previous month's closing level, so for the remaining 4 trading sessions in this month's expiry, we can not see any (God Forbid) major event, which can disturb the Index level to bring down from suggested level, in a very big correction mode. Small profit booking bouts can not be ruled out.

Nifty 50 Index Weekly Chart

The Nifty 50 Index Weekly chart is still in an upward channel and had not broken its previous week, lowest level, which was sitting at the level of 18559.75.

Now 18860, is a major support level, if the Nifty 50 index has to move forward, it has to respect the range of 18840 to 18860 levels, else it can break down to the range of 18540 to 18500 levels.

Nifty 50 Weekly Chart (Fibonacci Chart Status)

As we can see, before retracement, the index touched the highest level of 18886.65, which is approximately the same as 100% of the Fibonacci series sitting at 18886.45.

Now it has stuck in the range of 78.6% to 100% levels. So hypothetically we can say that the Nifty 50 Index will travel between 18446.90 to 18886.45, in the upcoming week.

Nifty 50 Index Daily Chart

The Nifty 50 Index Daily Chart is on the verge of breaking its nearest support level which is 18660. If it can not sustain this level at a daily closing basis, it can break down to 18558.75 levels soon.

Above this level, the index can again be volatile, but we do not expect a big correction because domestic economic conditions are supporting us.

Well, Global economic conditions are obviously not so good due to geo-political conditions, commodities prices are rising again.

Nifty 50 Index Hourly Chart

The Nifty 50 Index hourly chart has already broken the hourly trend line and closed at 18665.50 before traveling to the lowest level of the week 18647.10 level. It has already given the signal previous to the previous week,, because closing below the hourly chart was already started below the trendline.

Nifty 50- Index Immediate Support Level on Hourly Chart

As per the technical chart, if the Nifty 50 index will start trading below 18645.70 on Monday and is able to maintain its lowest level for 1 hour of trading, it is easy for it to break down and bears can take the full charge in the coming days.

This week is a truncated week, due to a public holiday, so liquidity can play a big role to establish the direction.

FIIs Weekly Activities on Daily Basis

FIIs are both buyers as well as sellers in the cash market. It is a mixed signal due to the news flow from the Russian military and Wagner coups along with Fed Chairman's recent comments have impacted their decisions and moved balanced ways.

Outlook for the NIFTY 50 Index for Coming Week starts from 26th Jun 2023

Before forming a bearish dark cloud cover pattern on the weekly charts, the benchmark index has been making higher highs for the last 13 weeks. Now, it has to hold above 18640 to 18,660 zones to witness an up move.

As we suggested in our previous technical journal that 18720 is the key level to watch, and the previous week's closing shows, it has broken now and the nifty 50 index is trading below this level.

The options data suggest a shift in the lower trading range between 18,500 and 19,000 zones while an immediate trading range between 18,550 and 18,800 zones.

On the weekly charts, we can observe a negative close after 4 consecutive weekly gains. Also, considering the broader market, the midcap, and smallcap indices have witnessed approximately 1% correction in the past couple of trading sessions.

Overall, weakness has crept in and the wait for a new all-time high gets longer, if the benchmark index breakdown towards 18500 levels.

India VIX

The previous week India VIX closed at 11.23 from 11.12

Support Level for the Coming Week for NIFTY:

The broader support level on the technical chart could be in the range of 18550 followed by the level of 18465.

Resistance Level for the Coming Week for NIFTY:

The broader resistance level on the technical chart could be 18800 followed by the levels of 18950

Double Top Formation in Nifty 50 Index @ Weekly Chart

The technical analysis of the weekly charts shows that the Nifty 50 index has formed approximately a double top just near its previous high point, this would be a major concern if the index can not save itself to drift down below 18550.

For Mid-term and long-term investors, the benchmark index is taking regular support from the previous four times supports, which sits at the 17000 level, so now this support will be treated as a stop loss for long-term investors.

It is suggested that the market may consolidate and stay within the defined range for some duration The lack of a strong market breadth and low VIX levels is something that one should not ignore by investors as well as traders.

A defensive approach is suggested for the coming week.

Thanks for reading.

Keep Trading

Stay Invested


Neeraj Bhatia

(Managing Director)

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI Registered technical Analyst, so consult your financial advisor, before taking any trade. This technical weekly post is only for learning purposes and its a free of charge. The views written here are completely my personal view only. I am not suggesting here anyone to follow my views. I do not have any WhatsApp Group ID or Telegram ID related to it.

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